Paul O'Donnell: Rafa's Waterloo?
A new European soccer season begins
Rafa’s Reds are out the gate with two wins. Sure, neither of them was a quality effort and the 2nd wasn’t settled until the last kick of the match but thanks to the blistering drive from Gerrard at the death it goes down in the record as a win. Decisive? No, but a win nonetheless.
Such as it was Boro were the better side for much of the match and earned the early lead forcing Liverpool to the brink. The Reds really didn’t boss the match until the final 15 minutes and the last ditch goal from Gerrard was cruel for Southgate’s side which deserved better on the day.
That said, fans of Liverpool are looking forward to another season and the expectations are high for an actual challenge for the EPL title. Sure, it is very "early days" with only two having been played but Liverpool are actually tied with Chelsea at the top of the table. Rafa’s recent announcement that the Reds were not focused on lifting the league trophy next May but rather, in winning them all (trophies that is, not games) was surely intended to be a positive. Frankly, many fans of Liverpool are pretty tired of such grandiose proclamations from him and his players and would rather they focused on accomplishing the goal that has eluded them since the league was created: winning the EPL title.
Truth be told since the inception of the world’s best pro league the storied team has been an also ran for the most part. The focus of the wrath for that lack of success in the league should now rest squarely on Rafa Benitez. As he prepares the team for another attempt he surely must know it will be his last if they do not mount a real fight for the top spot. A feat that has simply been beyond them since the inception of the Premier League and long before their present American owners were part of the scene.
With his team locked in a struggle for 6th in the table Rafa’s announcement in early March that Liverpool’s goal for 2007/08 had become a 4th place finish should have been a hard pill to swallow for the fans. Instead of shouting for his head on a platter the fans focused their disdain even more strongly on the American owners with claims they hadn’t done enough to prepare the team. That despite Liverpool spending more on new talent than any other EPL club in the previous off season was simply ignored by the faithful. Shrewd timing by Rafa, taking advantage of the fans ire toward the American owners and deflecting criticism for his own failure in the process.
Now, on the eve of the launch of a new campaign what do the fans of Liverpool hear from the manager? Excuses and attempts to deflect their ire elsewhere with "don’t ask me why we haven’t signed Barry" and "don’t ask me why we haven’t sold Alonso" ask Rick Parry or those evil, dastardly American owners. Rafa, laying the groundwork for excuses that he will later point to for why he has failed yet again to challenge for the title. Praise me if we win, but in case we don’t blame those other guys. Despicable.
With nonsense such as this at the top of the organization made very public by Benitez is there any wonder why this team can’t mount a serious challenge for the title? That obvious disarray finds its way to the pitch sure as the sun comes up in the morning. That aside for the moment, the truth is this team has been an EPL under-achiever for far longer than the reign of Rafa and those evil American owners. That said, this kind of behavior from the guy that is supposed to guide them to the top of the league is simply childish not to say about as unprofessional as it gets. Unfortunately it seems there is always something distracting this team from what should be their goal and in recent seasons a big part of that ’something’ has been Rafa with his penchant for throwing more coals on the fire.
Looking back on their history in the Premier League you find Liverpool’s performance has been lackluster despite their stature. To his credit Rafa has actually managed the best season in their history in the league in terms of points earned (2005/06) with 82, which was good for a 3rd place finish 9 points off the pace of Chelsea. Liverpool did manage a 2nd place finish in 2001/02 with 80 points, 7 behind Arsenal for their highest finish in the table since the EPL was created.
A more typical season for Liverpool has resulted in a point total of less than 70 for a finish of 4th place and an average deficit behind the winners of nearly 20 points. Over Rafa’s first 4 campaigns that average has remained nearly the same (19.5 points off the pace). The Reds have only managed more than 75 points for a complete EPL season three times, and two of them have been under Rafa’s reign (82 in 2005/06 and 76 last season). Take that first season out of the mix and Rafa’s average is just under 14pts behind the title winners.
So, that sounds pretty good given their history right? Perhaps, but that average of a nearly 20pt deficit to the winner is the real history of Liverpool since the inception of the Premier League. But is that a bit unfair to Rafa? Maybe, considering that his first full season in charge when he essentially inherited the team of Gerard Houllier they finished 37 points behind Chelsea’s wonderful season and found themselves in 5th.
Considering Benitez became the head man at Liverpool in the same off season that made Jose Mourinho the man at Stamford Bridge Rafa simply has not changed the outcome for Reds fans. Jose proved that he really was ’the Special One’ to separate himself from not only Rafa Benitez but the rest of the managers too. Rafa’s haul of only 58 points was good for a very distant 5th while Jose guided the Blues to their first league title in 50 years setting an EPL record earning 95 points in the process. Jose followed that season with another title earning 91 points in the process. Like him or not Jose got the job done in spectacular fashion and Rafa didn’t. Period.
That poor first season actually was good enough in a sense since Liverpool under his guidance strengthened the squad significantly before the next campaign. They went on to win the Champions League in penalties over AC Milan in that spirited fightback after falling behind 3-0 in the opening half. They also rang the bell with their highest point total ever in the EPL (82) and that 3rd place finish. Rafa has been making a handsome living off that season ever since while not really being competitive in the league. That history is a big part of what makes the coming season so significant for Rafa and his team.
The Reds season mark for 2007/08 (21-13-4) provides the clear answer as to what made the difference last time out. While losing one fewer match than Man United the Reds managed to finish 11 points behind due to those draws. Nearly half of them (6) were at Anfield and among those was a terribly lackluster scoreless draw to a team that failed to earn another season in the EPL (Birmingham). Liverpool recorded four of those draws at home before the holiday period last term which doomed their season before it was half over.
Liverpool has managed to average above 2 points per game on only three occasions (last season was one of them when they hit it right on the mark at 2.0 per game). That stat in itself shows that their games end in a draw far too often. To illustrate the significance of averaging that 2 points per game, the EPL title has been won only once by a team that did not meet that mark (Man United, 1996/97) when they managed 75 points, or 1.97 points per game.
Most pundits say that the performance on the road is the real issue separating the winners from those that aren’t quite there yet, and that is true for almost any season. However, last term the real difference maker for Liverpool was the number of draws on their own home ground as they all but equaled Man United’s record on their travels. Last season they earned 34 points on the road and the champion Man United only managed 35 (Chelsea won 42 points on travel status last season). By the way, it also shows that Chelsea’s 2 point deficit to United was due to their own draws at Stamford Bridge (7 of them).
One other difference maker for the Reds over the period of Rafa’s reign has been their failure to win the points against the primary challengers for the title. Truth be told if you don’t defeat those teams you don’t deserve to win the championship and Rafa’s Reds have not done the job in those high profile encounters. Last term Liverpool only managed to earn 4 points (4 draws) in their six games against Arsenal, Man United and Chelsea. More to the point United’s title was won in large part via their 2 shutout wins over Liverpool. Actually United has shutout the Reds in seven consecutive EPL games. Liverpool’s last goal against United in league play was back on September 20, 2004, in a 2-1 defeat and that was an own goal (O’Shea).
Liverpool fans that point their crooked fingers at either Rafa or their new favorite enemy the American owners are fooling themselves. The status of ’also-ran’ has been precisely what the Reds have earned in the league. Frankly, this team has been so far behind the winners pace so often that they really don’t deserve the status of one of the ’Big Four’ either. The most recent seasons have shown that the Big Four has become the Big Three with Liverpool being little more than the best of the rest. The 2007/08 season saw them in a dire struggle with Portsmouth, Everton and rising challenger Aston Villa to hold on to earn that 4th place finish. It is true that under Rafa Benitez they have closed the gap, but not by much.
Those other members of that exclusive club, the EPL’s Big Four, have actually won the league trophy.
